After the spectacular failure of our attempts to predict the BAFTA Film Awards earlier this month, it seemed appropriate to go all in for this weekend’s Academy Awards.
Here we go, then. This is the list of the high profile categories, and my hopeless attempts to see which will prevail….
Best supporting actress
Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
Judi Dench (Belfast)
Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Who will win?
The first big award of the night might just also be the only prize that West Side Story takes home. An early frontrunner for the Oscars, it’s faded a little across awards season, but DeBose’s star absolutely hasn’t. If she’s not going to win this prize, then I’d like to see Jessie Buckley win it. The bookmakers are listing her as the absolute outsider though, so in the interest and me quickly getting a point on the board, I’m following the form book. DeBose gets her gong. I do not begrudge her it either.
Best adapted screenplay
Coda (Sian Heder)
Drive My Car (Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Takamasa Oe)
Dune (Eric Roth, Jon Spaihts, Denis Villeneuve)
The Lost Daughter (Maggie Gyllenhaal)
The Power of the Dog (Jane Campion)
Who will win?
Sian Heder. Just as we’re about to see with the Best Picture race down at the bottom of this article, there are two main contenders here: Coda, and Jane Campion for The Power Of The Dog. I’m seeing a version of the Oscars where both Heder and Campion have something to take home at the end of the night, and I don’t mean an expensive gift bag and a receipt for an Uber home.
Best original screenplay
Belfast (Kenneth Branagh)
Don’t Look Up (Adam McKay, David Sirota)
Licorice Pizza (Paul Thomas Anderson)
King Richard (Zach Baylin)
The Worst Person in the World (Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier)
Who will win?
If Sir Ken is to finally win his Oscar – and lest we forget, he’s been nominated in more different categories than anyone else in history – then this is surely his moment. His main rival is Paul Thomas Anderson, who likewise might finally be about to get his first Academy Award. I’d argue that of the nominees, it’s The Worst Person In The World that’s the best film. But bugger it: I’m putting my money on Branagh. And hoping he recovers from Covid in time to pick up his gong.
Best supporting actor
Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
Troy Kotsur (Coda)
Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
JK Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Who will win?
A home run for Troy Kotsur here, who’s been collecting an impressive number of awards already for his wonderful supporting turn in Coda. Kodi Smit-McPhee can perhaps feel a little aggrieved that his excellent work has been overshadowed a little, but I’m still voting Kotsur. Actually, I don’t have a vote, so I’ll predict him to win instead.
Best animated feature
Encanto
Flee
Luca
The Mitchells Vs the Machines
Raya and the Last Dragon
What will win?
In a year when The Mitchells Vs The Machines emerged as one of the most interesting animated films to come out of Hollywood in recent times, it’s been Disney’s Encanto that’s sweeping the board. I quite liked Encanto, but I can’t help thinking it’s probably the weakest of the nominees. My head says it’s going to win the Oscar too. My heart, however, is with the Mitchells…
Best actress
Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
Who will win?
Possibly the hardest category to call, this one. The outsider seems to be Penelope Cruz, but any of the other quartet appear to be very much in the running. Sadly, this is supposed to be an Oscar prediction article, and as such I have to make a call. I think, therefore, that Jessica Chastain might edge it, even if not that many people have seen the film she’s in.
Best actor
Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
Andrew Garfield (tick, tick … BOOM!)
Will Smith (King Richard)
Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Who will win?
Your know what? This might be the year of Big Willie. The race seems to boil down to him or Benedict Cumberbatch, and Smith seems to have emerged as the favourite. The film around him, King Richard, isn’t expected to win too many awards. But this may be its high profile one.
Best director
Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
Ryûsuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Who will win?
For the second year in a row, expect a female director to take home the statue, for only the third time in the history of the Academy Awards. This is clearly Jane Campion’s gong, and she’ll follow Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) and Kathryn Bigelow (The Hurt Locker) into the Oscar history books. Maybe one day this won’t quite feel like an exception.
Best picture
Belfast
Coda
Don’t Look Up
Drive My Car
Dune
King Richard
Licorice Pizza
Nightmare Alley
The Power of the Dog
West Side Story
What will win?
Most observers now predict this has come down to a two horse race, with the acceptance that for the first time, a streaming company’s film is going to walk off with the top prize. The favourite remains Jane Campion’s The Power Of The Dog, backed by Netflix. Its main rival, that’s been soaring through awards season, is the Apple movie CODA. At the moment, the momentum appears to be with the latter. Still think The Power Of The Dog might nick it, though, although Belfast is your go-to for a surprise winner.
The Academy Awards take place on Sunday night. whynow cannot be held responsible for anyone who places money on the Oscars off the back of these predictions. Tell your lawyers to stand down…
