The Oscars are a glitzy evening of glamour and appreciation for the art of cinema, but the event has recently been overshadowed by scandals left, right and centre. Last year, Will Smith won Best Actor just moments after slapping host Chris Rock across the face. Not to mention the #OscarsSoWhite hashtag that has gone around social media most years.
It unfortunately looks like another year where diversity might be an issue. The lineups for other awards ceremonies so far have showed that this is another year with a lot of Caucasian, male nominees.
It’s easy to get lost in all the tabloid-y gossip of it, but there are some truly fantastic films competing for that small, golden man this year. With the BAFTA nominations announced yesterday (19 January), we have a decent idea of who may be nominated and who may be snubbed altogether.
Notably, the Oscars traditionally nominates ten films for Best Picture. There are a few that are absolute lock-ins: Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Top Gun: Maverick and Tár.
It’s also increasingly likely that Steven Spielberg’s The Fabelmans will make it. With 14 BAFTA nominations under its belt, it also looks like All Quiet on The Western Front might also make it.
Less certain are the likes of The Whale and Triangle of Sadness, but there’s space for them. Aftersun might also pull a small miracle and make it, or perhaps its spot will be taken by something like Glass Onion.
Women Talking should be on here, but we doubt it’ll make it in as much as we feel like it is deserving.
Avatar: The Way of Water seems to be the wild card here though. It may be the highest grossing film released in 2022, but there hasn’t been a lot of awards love for it. 2009’s Avatar narrowly lost to Katherine Bigelow’s The Hurt Locker in both Best Director and Best Picture and it looks like The Way of Water will also miss out on the awards glory.
Final predictions: All Quiet on The Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle Of Sadness
BAFTAs snubbed a lot of potential directors here and it’s very likely the Oscars will also take a more eccentric route to finding this year’s best director.
The Daniels (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert) and Martin McDonagh, for Everything Everywhere All At Once and The Banshees of Inisherin respectively, seem like the only certain ones to make it here.
Spielberg’s The Fabelmans seems to be the kind of film the Academy loves, but the film has lost a lot of momentum and Spielberg, along with Avatar’s James Cameron, missed out on a BAFTA nod.
Todd Field is likely to be one of the five nominees for Tár, but Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), Darren Aronosky (The Whale) and Ruben Östlund (Triangle of Sadness) might make it too.
Edward Berger (All Quiet on The Western Front) might pull a shocker here though, following his BAFTA nomination. Gina Prince-Bythewood directed The Woman King with vision and fury and we’d love for her to secure the Oscar nominations, but the Academy tends to lean towards more traditional dramas.
Final predictions: The Daniels, Martin McDonagh, Steven Spielberg, Todd Field, Baz Luhrmann
Best Actress might be the most stacked category this year.
We’re almost certain Cate Blanchett will take home the prize for her brilliant performance in Tár, but we’d love to see Michelle Yeoh win this one for her role as Evelyn Wang in Everything Everywhere All At Once.
Viola Davis has a good chance of getting nominated for The Woman King and while critics haven’t been able to agree on whether Blonde is good or bad, everyone seems to agree that Ana De Armas is great in that film, making it exceedingly likely that she will be among the list of nominees.
Danielle Deadwyler’s heartbreaking performance in Till has been acclaimed and she’s likely to be that final nominee, but Michelle Williams’ eccentric turn in The Fabelmans could also hit a note with the voters.
Final predictions: Cate Blanchett, Michelle Yeoh, Danielle Deadwyler, Viola Davis, Michelle Williams
Colin Farrell and Bill Nighy will most likely be nominated here, but the fifth nominee seems to be a mystery.
We’d love to see Aftersun’s Paul Mescal recognised here, but we might be getting our hopes up too high with that one. Tom Cruise has been generating a little bit of buzz, but it seems unlikely that his return to the role of Pete ‘Maverick’ Mitchell is quite enough to secure that nomination.
Final predictions: Brendan Fraser, Austin Butler, Colin Farrell, Bill Nighy, Paul Mescal
Best Supporting Actress
It would be a shame if Jamie Lee Curtis were to be nominated over Stephanie Hsu for Everything Everywhere All At Once, but we’re certain Curtis will be on that list.
Angela Bassett has been sweeping in this category for her emotional performance in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness) seems like a surprising frontrunner in this category, but the rest are less certain.
Kerry Condon is also a real contender here for The Banshees of Inisherin and Hong Chau deserves a spot here for her incredible work in The Whale.
That being said, it’s rather staggering how little love there has been for Women Talking. Jessie Buckley, Rooney Mara and Claire Foy all seemed like shoo-ins when the film premiered but there hasn’t been much hype around Sarah Polley’s drama.
Final predictions: Jamie Lee Curtis, Angela Bassett, Dolly De Leon, Kerry Condon, Hong Chau
Best Supporting Actor
Ke Huy Quan has been sweeping in this category for Everything Everywhere All At Once, but Brendan Gleeson is an actor the Academy loves. His devastating role in The Banshees of Inisherin will most likely get his name on that list and rightfully so.
Gabriel LaBelle from The Fabelmans bagged a Critics Choice Award only a week ago, so he might still have a chance of making it to the list of nominees. Paul Dano has a slightly better chance of bagging that nomination for The Fabelmans and Judd Hirsch might also get a nod for playing Michelle Williams’ father in Spielberg’s semi-autobiographical film.
We’d also love to see Barry Keoghan nominated for The Banshees of Inisherin along with Gleeson. It’s a shame Brad Pitt has not been receiving any love from any of the awards bodies, because his performance in Babylon is one of his best in years.
Final predictions: Ke Huy Quan, Brendan Gleeson, Barry Keoghan, Paul Dano, Judd Hirsch
Best Original Screenplay
Can we all agree Martin McDonagh has this one in the bag for The Banshees of Inisherin? It’s hard to imagine anyone being able to top that, but there will be four other nominees regardless and I’d love to be wrong about the winner here.
The Daniels probably have the best chance of not just getting nominated, but perhaps also winning this over McDonagh for Everything Everywhere All At Once.
Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg will no doubt make it to the final list of nominees as will Todd Field for the persuasive Tár.
The final nominee seems to be a bit of a wild card. The final slot will probably go to Triangle of Sadness, but we’d love to see Jordan Peele get some love here for Nope. Peele made history in 2016 for being the first African-American to win the category for a debut feature film for Get Out.
Final predictions: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness
Best Adapted Screenplay
Adapted screenplay is unfortunately the only category where Sarah Polley’s Women Talking has a real chance. It will without a doubt be nominated but it still faces considerable competition from Rian Johnson’s piercing script for Glass Onion.
Kazuo Ishiguro will also be a shoo-in for this category for Living and following the BAFTA nominations, it looks increasingly likely that Samuel D. Hunter of The Whale will be honoured for adapting his own play.
All Quiet on The Western Front is most likely the final nominee, but it could be overthrown by the Academy’s love for Top Gun: Maverick.
Final predictions: Women Talking, Glass Onion, The Whale, Living, All Quiet on The Western Front
Best International Feature
Another incredibly stacked category, Best International Feature currently has no clear frontrunner.
The obvious nominees are All Quiet on The Western Front, Decision to Leave and Ireland’s The Quiet Girl. RRR will most likely also make it here, but it was completely shut out of the BAFTAs, weakening its stance.
Jerzy Skolimowski’s EO is also a real contender here, but it’s hard to see anything topping the powerhouse that is All Quiet on The Western Front. Lukas Dhont’s Close, which garnered rave reviews at festivals, could also be among the nominees.
Final predictions: All Quiet on The Western Front, Decision to Leave, RRR, The Quiet Girl, EO
Best Documentary Feature
Best Documentary also feels like a near certainty. Moonage Daydream, Brett Morgen’s wonderful David Bowie documentary, and All The Beauty and The Bloodshed, Laura Poitras’ Nan Goldin feature which won the Golden Lion at Venice, will likely battle it out in March.
Other nominees will probably be Fire of Love, Navalny and All That Breathes.
Final predictions: Moonage Daydream, All the Beauty and The Bloodshed, Fire of Love, Navalny, All That Breathes
Best Animated Feature
This category will no doubt be dominated by Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio and rightfully so.
Pixar’s Turning Red will probably also make an appearance, as will A24’s Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, but neither has any real chance of winning.
Puss In Boots: The Last Wish has been warmly received and may very well find its name called out on Tuesday. My Father’s Dragon is fully deserving in this category, as is Strange World but both might lose the nomination.
Inu-Oh might be the surprise contender here, but it’s hard to see any film snatching that statue from Del Toro this year. Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, loves Pinocchio.
Final predictions: Pinocchio, Turning Red, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Inu-Oh, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On